A white woman has a 61% chance of winning The Bachelor

Episode 3 included a lot of drama and because of that, instead of 3 women, 4 women were sent home… for now. (spoiler alert! Alayah returns next week!)

At the conclusion of this episode, there are 8 white women still there, 4 black women, and 1 Asian. Here are the stats!

White – 8 (down 2 from last week)

Black – 4 (down 1 from last week)

Asian – 1 (down 1 from last week)

Chance of winning…

A black woman: 30.8% (up 1.5% since episode 2)

An Asian woman: 7.7% (down 4% since episode 2)

A white woman: 61.5% (up 3% since episode 2)

Among the white women there are 3 blondes, 4 brunettes, and still Lexie as the lone redhead. As a ginger, she has a 7.7% chance of winning it all. A brunette has a 31% of winning, and a blonde has a 23% chance of winning.

Thanks for stopping by!

-Out of the Wilderness

 

The Bachelor: More about Alayah and why she’s hanging out with a Titan

If you’re watching the episodes each week you’ve undoubtedly heard a lot about Alayah in episode 3 (aired 1/20/2020). According to her bio on the show’s website Alayah is a orthodontist assistant from San Antonio, Texas. Her last name is Benavidez, which means “son/servant of God.”

Alayah means “exalted, sublime; to ascend; joyful”. Alayah is an alternate spelling of Alaia (Arabic, Hebrew, Basque).

As a Benavidez, Alayah can expect to live well into her 60s before she’s smells her last rose. Ancestry.com says those with the last name of Benavidez in the USA have a lifespan of upper 60s. Alayah has anywhere from 40 to 45 years left on this earth.

Her full name is Alayah Nicole Benavidez.

She attended UT-San Antonio.

She opened an online boutique called Three Bees Boutique.

She was crowned Miss Texas 2019 back in January of that year. Here’ the winning moment…

She then competed in Miss USA pageant, where she did not make the top 15. Fellow Bachelor contestant Victoria Paul did make the top 15, but not the top 10.

(Victoria P. had open heart surgery as a baby, and is the first in her family to graduate college. She either has or wants to have a Master’s Degree in nursing.)

According to her bio on the Miss USA website, Alayah wants to become a published author.

Alayah has overcome dyslexia as a student.

She’s a dog lover, and has a 110-pound doberman pinscher named Titan, who she likes to run with, as shown here in her Instagram post.

Alayah and Titan

Thanks for stopping by and if you’re interested in more Bachelor stats, follow my blog which I update weekly following each Bachelor episode.

-Out of the Wilderness

A redhead has a 6% of winning The Bachelor

Episode 2 is in the books and is it just me or did the Hannah B. thing come across as a setup? She and Peter acted like they were in such a tough spot after reconnecting in episode 1. Is Hannah B. back in his life? Should she join the other women as a contestant? Oh, the drama. Then in a matter of seconds, as if cued by a producer, Peter decides he can’t do this and Hannah’s out the door with a hug and a smile. I’m so skeptical about the genuineness of this part of the show. Anyway, Peter meets up with the women from the group date he was still currently on and they skip right to the “after party.”

Later the rose ceremony happens so here are the updated stats for the women still remaining after episode 2.

There are 5 black women, 2 Asian women, and 10 white women.

Chances of winning…

A black woman: 29.4% (up 2% since episode 1)

An Asian woman: 11.8% (up 2.5% since episode 1)

A white woman: 58.8% (down 5% since episode 1)

Among the 10 white women, there are 4 brunettes (2 less than last week), 5 blondes (2 less than last week), and 1 redhead (go Lexie!).

-Out of the Wilderness

Bachelor Peter the Pilot has a 4.5% chance of marrying someone his age

I’ve totally gone down the rabbit hole of numbers and ages and statistics and chances any particular bachelorette have of winning this season of The Bachelor. Peter the Pilot has already narrowed it down to 22 women (the season opened with 30 women at the mansion). Here’s what I’ve found working for or against the women so far…

Peter is 28 years old. Episode 1, there were 27 women younger than him. Two were his same age, and there’s 1 woman older than him (she’s 31).

Ages and chance of winning before episode 1 (30 women)…

20-25: 15 (50% chance of winning)

26-30: 14 (46.6% chance of winning)

30s: 1 (3.3% chance of winning)

20-27 (younger than Peter) : 27 (90% chance of winning)

28 (same age) : 2 (6.6% chance)

29-30s (older than Peter) : 1 (3.3% chance)


Ages and chance of winning before episode 2 (22 women)…

20-25: 12 (54.5% chance)

26-30: 9 (41% chance)

30s: 1 (4.5% chance)

20-27 (younger than Peter) : 20 (90.9% chance of winning, up nearly 1% since ep 1)

28 (same age) : 1 (4.5% chance of winning, down just over 2% since ep 1)

29-30s (older than Peter) : 1 (4.5% chance of winning, up 1.2% since ep 1)

Thanks for stopping by! If you have any guesses who might get the final rose, and how old she is, chime in with a comment below.

-Out of the Wilderness

A black woman has a 27% chance of winning The Bachelor (after episode 1)

Peter the Pilot started off with 30 women who all apparently think he’s the perfect man to marry, or at least date for a few weeks on national TV. Among the 30 competitors, there were 7 black women, 20 white, and 3 were Asian.

During episode 1, there was a rose ceremony where 8 women were sent home. With that in mind, here are the numbers and a few statistics on the women still on the show.

Black women: 6 (down from 7 in ep 1)

Asian women: 2 (down from 3 in ep 1)

White women: 14 (down from 20 in ep 1)

Of the white women, 6 are brunette, 7 are blonde, and 1 is a red head.

These numbers compute the following stats…

A white woman has a 63.6% chance of winning, down 3% since ep 1.

A black woman has a 27.3% chance of winning, up 4% since ep 1.

An Asian woman has a 9.1% chance of winning, down 0.9% since ep 1.

For statistics before episode 1 aired, click here.
-Out of the Wilderness

A white woman has a 66% chance of winning the Bachelor this season

The new season is almost upon us and with all the busyness of the December holidays, episode 1 has definitely snuck up on me. This season has Peter in the cockpit with not 25, but 30!!!! ladies calmly buckled in as his love passengers. Does anyone know when they switched from 25 to 30 contestants? I mean, goodness gracious that’s a lot! I vaguely remember one season a few years back they promoted it as having 5 more than usual, but it seems like the norm to have 30 now.

Here’s a list of the contestants if you care to take a look.

Breaking it down by the numbers, there are 7 woman who look to be black or at least mixed race, 3 of Asian decent, and the rest white, 20.

Of those white ladies, 9 are brunette, 10 are blonde, and 1 is a red-head.

If my math is correct, and it rarely ever was in school, that gives a white woman around a 67% chance of winning, a black woman has a 23% chance, and the Asian ladies are at 10%. But numbers don’t really matter when it comes to love. Peter takes flight Monday night and I’m sure there will be dozens of flight/pilot/airline jokes so please return your seat to it’s upright position, turn off all your devices, and let’s fly the friendly skies of The Bachelor together.

If you’re interested in reading recaps of each new episode, kindly respond below to let me know!

-Out of the Wilderness