A white woman has a 61% chance of winning The Bachelor

Episode 3 included a lot of drama and because of that, instead of 3 women, 4 women were sent home… for now. (spoiler alert! Alayah returns next week!)

At the conclusion of this episode, there are 8 white women still there, 4 black women, and 1 Asian. Here are the stats!

White – 8 (down 2 from last week)

Black – 4 (down 1 from last week)

Asian – 1 (down 1 from last week)

Chance of winning…

A black woman: 30.8% (up 1.5% since episode 2)

An Asian woman: 7.7% (down 4% since episode 2)

A white woman: 61.5% (up 3% since episode 2)

Among the white women there are 3 blondes, 4 brunettes, and still Lexie as the lone redhead. As a ginger, she has a 7.7% chance of winning it all. A brunette has a 31% of winning, and a blonde has a 23% chance of winning.

Thanks for stopping by!

-Out of the Wilderness

 

A redhead has a 6% of winning The Bachelor

Episode 2 is in the books and is it just me or did the Hannah B. thing come across as a setup? She and Peter acted like they were in such a tough spot after reconnecting in episode 1. Is Hannah B. back in his life? Should she join the other women as a contestant? Oh, the drama. Then in a matter of seconds, as if cued by a producer, Peter decides he can’t do this and Hannah’s out the door with a hug and a smile. I’m so skeptical about the genuineness of this part of the show. Anyway, Peter meets up with the women from the group date he was still currently on and they skip right to the “after party.”

Later the rose ceremony happens so here are the updated stats for the women still remaining after episode 2.

There are 5 black women, 2 Asian women, and 10 white women.

Chances of winning…

A black woman: 29.4% (up 2% since episode 1)

An Asian woman: 11.8% (up 2.5% since episode 1)

A white woman: 58.8% (down 5% since episode 1)

Among the 10 white women, there are 4 brunettes (2 less than last week), 5 blondes (2 less than last week), and 1 redhead (go Lexie!).

-Out of the Wilderness

Bachelor Peter the Pilot has a 4.5% chance of marrying someone his age

I’ve totally gone down the rabbit hole of numbers and ages and statistics and chances any particular bachelorette have of winning this season of The Bachelor. Peter the Pilot has already narrowed it down to 22 women (the season opened with 30 women at the mansion). Here’s what I’ve found working for or against the women so far…

Peter is 28 years old. Episode 1, there were 27 women younger than him. Two were his same age, and there’s 1 woman older than him (she’s 31).

Ages and chance of winning before episode 1 (30 women)…

20-25: 15 (50% chance of winning)

26-30: 14 (46.6% chance of winning)

30s: 1 (3.3% chance of winning)

20-27 (younger than Peter) : 27 (90% chance of winning)

28 (same age) : 2 (6.6% chance)

29-30s (older than Peter) : 1 (3.3% chance)


Ages and chance of winning before episode 2 (22 women)…

20-25: 12 (54.5% chance)

26-30: 9 (41% chance)

30s: 1 (4.5% chance)

20-27 (younger than Peter) : 20 (90.9% chance of winning, up nearly 1% since ep 1)

28 (same age) : 1 (4.5% chance of winning, down just over 2% since ep 1)

29-30s (older than Peter) : 1 (4.5% chance of winning, up 1.2% since ep 1)

Thanks for stopping by! If you have any guesses who might get the final rose, and how old she is, chime in with a comment below.

-Out of the Wilderness

A black woman has a 27% chance of winning The Bachelor (after episode 1)

Peter the Pilot started off with 30 women who all apparently think he’s the perfect man to marry, or at least date for a few weeks on national TV. Among the 30 competitors, there were 7 black women, 20 white, and 3 were Asian.

During episode 1, there was a rose ceremony where 8 women were sent home. With that in mind, here are the numbers and a few statistics on the women still on the show.

Black women: 6 (down from 7 in ep 1)

Asian women: 2 (down from 3 in ep 1)

White women: 14 (down from 20 in ep 1)

Of the white women, 6 are brunette, 7 are blonde, and 1 is a red head.

These numbers compute the following stats…

A white woman has a 63.6% chance of winning, down 3% since ep 1.

A black woman has a 27.3% chance of winning, up 4% since ep 1.

An Asian woman has a 9.1% chance of winning, down 0.9% since ep 1.

For statistics before episode 1 aired, click here.
-Out of the Wilderness

A white woman has a 66% chance of winning the Bachelor this season

The new season is almost upon us and with all the busyness of the December holidays, episode 1 has definitely snuck up on me. This season has Peter in the cockpit with not 25, but 30!!!! ladies calmly buckled in as his love passengers. Does anyone know when they switched from 25 to 30 contestants? I mean, goodness gracious that’s a lot! I vaguely remember one season a few years back they promoted it as having 5 more than usual, but it seems like the norm to have 30 now.

Here’s a list of the contestants if you care to take a look.

Breaking it down by the numbers, there are 7 woman who look to be black or at least mixed race, 3 of Asian decent, and the rest white, 20.

Of those white ladies, 9 are brunette, 10 are blonde, and 1 is a red-head.

If my math is correct, and it rarely ever was in school, that gives a white woman around a 67% chance of winning, a black woman has a 23% chance, and the Asian ladies are at 10%. But numbers don’t really matter when it comes to love. Peter takes flight Monday night and I’m sure there will be dozens of flight/pilot/airline jokes so please return your seat to it’s upright position, turn off all your devices, and let’s fly the friendly skies of The Bachelor together.

If you’re interested in reading recaps of each new episode, kindly respond below to let me know!

-Out of the Wilderness

 

 

Would you rather date through Facebook, or go on The Bachelor?

Ever since the dawn of man, men have been trying to get it right with the ladies. Heck, Adam was the very first Bachelor contestant, right?

But there is nothing easy about deciding to be on The Bachelor, I’m sure. A lot of your dating history will be exposed to millions of people who will either cheer for you (which would be awesome, I guess), or cringe (which is most likely). Then there are the tears.

So. Much. Crying.

If you watch the show, or any of it’s spinoffs like The Bachelorette, Bachelor Pad, Bachelor in Paradise you know exactly what I mean when I say these people are… what’s the word… interesting. Most of them think being on the show is their one last shot at finding true love. Most of them are also under the age of 25.

Bless their hearts. Then, if one of these young’ns don’t get a rose, they bawl their eyes out because they thought they had found “the one.” After 3 days of being part of the cast. Barely knowing the person’s last name.

Well, getting dumped on national TV is no longer their last chance of getting rejected!!! Facebook has entered the game.  Facebook wants to be for single people what Alex “Hitch” Hitchens was to Albert Brennaman. 

So romantic. Really, it is. But does Facebook have any hope of being a successful matchmaker? I’ll say this… using an established social network to romantically connect people together makes a lot of sense. There are millions of people who have millions of friends in common, so perhaps this could be a way for friends to meet friends of friends… people they wouldn’t have met otherwise.

I just have my doubts as someone who’s tried a handful of dating platforms.

You see, what I’ve heard from my female friends is this: guys on dating sites are mostly one of 3 types. The creepy guy. The runner. The player.

[creepy guy]

Creepy guys are hard to explain because they can appear in a few different ways. But mostly, and this is just based on what I’ve heard from female friends, they’re clingy, or as soon as a woman doesn’t respond right away or asks a question about the guy’s authenticity the dude gets defensive and hurtful.

The runner is the guy that has a lot of potential in the beginning but as time wears on the other shoe drops. Meaning this… he’s got something in his DNA that won’t let him get to the place where a relationship can last. So he either ghosts, or just goes away, blaming himself.

The player. This one is easy to define. Sex. His first message is something like, “Hey baby” or “Ur fine” or something super genuine like that. 😉

They want one thing and one thing only.

Here’s another truth for you… when women join a dating site, they are flooded with messages, matches, winks, whatever. While that could be flattering, it’s actually really overwhelming. And from a friend who checked out the Facebook dating “portal,” it hasn’t been any different. She said the influx of matches caused her to delete her dating profile.

Sucks for the ladies who are on “here for the right reasons,” and for the dudes who are genuinely “looking for their person.”

So why would Facebook be any different from dating apps that exist currently? I can’t think of a solid reason except for the friends of friends thing. In that regard, it does open up more options than The Bachelor ever will, because nowadays, they’re all just dating each other. Yes, we’re looking at you Blake from Stagecoach.

He. Sounds. Hideous.

Have you tried the Facebook dating thing? Have you auditioned for the Bachelor? Chime in below and let’s get a conversation going!

-Out of the Wilderness

…and I’m Kanye West

Kanye West has been an interesting conversation since he’s become a household name. I didn’t know who he was until I heard “Jesus Walks,” his fourth single off his first album way back in 2004. I remember thinking, “Well, here we go! Maybe there’ll be some entertaining mainstream rap about faith.”


Then he pretty much skidded off the rails. And by that I mean, he’s kinda nuts.


I stopped liking him because of his braggadocious personality. He was still entertaining, don’t get me wrong, but much like those rails he skidded off of, we like witnessing metaphorical train wrecks, don’t we? And there might be something loose upstairs, just saying. But back to train wrecks… well, I’ll also admit here that I watch The Bachelor and Bachelor in Paradise for the same reasons.

Anyway, Kanye annoyed me to no end with his “everyone’s out to get me” attitude.

Then he randomly had praise for Donald Trump last year, I believe it was. I thought, “Well, here we go! Maybe there’ll be some redeeming value to this guy after all!”

So at this point, I still don’t understand him. I mean, he willingly married a Kardashian people!!! He said he was running for president in 2020 yet I see no commercials of him saying, “I’m Kanye and I approve this message.” But somewhere deep down maybe he’s got something we can like about him. I don’t know.

-Out of the Wilderness